PREDICTING MOVIES

Introduction:

The show-biz is a very high profile business with considerable amount of revenues that are at stake. In the year 1998, cinemagoers had spent a whopping $6.88 billion in US Box office. A movie’s business alone is responsible for profits and losses for the studio. Hence, it is not surprising to see that movie studios are increasingly interested in predicting the revenues that a movie can rake. It is important to ascertain, whether the star power can lead to profit or big budget pictures are likely to make more money at the box office. It is often observed that some highly publicized events had stimulated an impact on the revenues such as the nomination to Oscars.

Criteria for Predicting Movies:

Predicting Movies are based on several criteria’s that are mentioned below. Majority of times, few of them or rarely all are used for predicting the future of the film:

1. Genre of film: The Genre can be classified into Comedy, Drama, Documentary, Horror, Sci-fi and thriller.
2. The movie’s origin belongs to which country. It is classified as English-speaking and non-English speaking.
3. The rating conferred on the movie by the Motion Picture Association of America. It is classified as PG – parental guidance advised, G-General Guidance, PG-13 suitable for children above the age of 13 years, R children cannot view unless accompanied by adult, NC 17 – prohibited for people below 17 years and U- Unrated.
4. The Star power with respect to the movie, in terms of actors and actress starring in the movie and their current position in the chart for top 20 or 25 actors.
5. Budget of the movie is also a criterion, for predicting the movie’s performance at the box office.
6. Is it a sequel to a movie? And what was the performance of the earlier one?
7.  The screens booked for the first week of the release. Is it a worldwide release or not?

Overview:

Movies prediction, if done by following the above criteria’s will help in getting the nearly accurate results. For instance, if a movie rating is PG, G or PG 13 then, they are targeted at the children or teens. Hence, the prediction can be based on the basis of time, if a vacation or Christmas time then, the movie will generate more revenues. The genres for instance, if horror then target audience tends to narrow down to a particular segment more probably teens. Movie predictions have become an important exercise followed by all the people, whose money is at stake.